It could be one of the biggest astronomical events in years ― a star explosion so intense it could literally change the night sky. Astronomers are predicting that binary star system KIC 9832227, located in the Cygnus constellation, will merge and explode in a “red nova” event in 2022.
And if it happens as predicted, its brightness will increase by 10,000-fold, making it one of the brightest objects in the night sky and easily visible with the naked eye, according to a Calvin College news release.
“It will be a very dramatic change in the sky, as anyone can see it,” Calvin College astronomer Larry Molnar told National Geographic. “You won’t need a telescope to tell me in 2023 whether I was wrong or I was right.”
By Ed Mazza – Full Story at The Huffington Post
This prediction can only reflect the math-calculated moment at which either a black hole or a neutron star, orbiting its host star, finally spirals in to the host star and induces the explosion. As such (math), the final disposition of the assemblage is pretty much accurate – unless another input shows up. Which, since this will be the FIRST such observation, is pretty much to be expected.
This inherent uncertainty of close-star encounters is the only real consideration I see. In other words, it will be AROUND 2022, but that could be changed by close-star physics.